Xi Seen With Stronger Hand For Trump Meeting At China Apec

Trump is expected to face a stronger and more confident Xi Jinping when the two leaders meet at the November Apec forum in China, with experts pointing to three main reasons: an upgraded US-China framework, a warmer diplomatic tone during Xi’s three-day visit, and China’s leverage as host of the forum.

The key argument being made by experts is that the Chinese side is likely to arrive at the November Apec forum with greater confidence than it had in a purely bilateral setting. They attribute this to changes in the wider diplomatic environment around US-China ties, as well as to the practical advantage China will have because the forum will be held on its own ground.

The first reason cited by experts is a newly upgraded bilateral framework between the two sides. The framework seeks a “constructive relationship of strategic stability based on respect, fairness and reciprocity”. That language is being viewed as one of the reasons Beijing may see itself as better positioned ahead of the November meeting.

The second reason is the warmer tone seen during Xi’s three-day visit. Experts have linked that tone to the expectation that the Chinese side will be more confident when Xi meets Trump at the Apec forum in China. The source material does not describe the visit in further detail, but identifies the warmer diplomatic atmosphere as one of the three key factors behind the forecast.

The third reason, described as especially important, is the significant leverage that comes with host diplomacy. Since China will host the Apec forum, experts say Beijing will not be in the same position it was in during the Washington summit, where the United States had greater control over how the event was arranged.

The forum will take place in southern China’s Shenzhen. The city is described in the source material as home to technological giants Huawei, BYD and Tencent. That setting gives President Xi Jinping a platform that goes beyond a bilateral summit and allows China to present its diplomatic strength in a broader forum.

In Shenzhen, Xi will have greater control over the agenda. He will also be able to showcase Beijing’s growing diplomatic clout in ways that would not have been possible during a bilateral summit. This is central to the assessment that Trump will be meeting a Chinese leader with a stronger hand at the November Apec forum.

Chen Qi, director of the Centre for US-China Relations at Tsinghua University, explained the importance of China’s role as host. “As the Apec host, China will clearly possess far more autonomy in agenda-setting, topic selection, and preparatory work than it did during the Washington summit, where the US controlled the choreography while China held only participation and discussion rights,” said Chen Qi.

Chen’s assessment draws a direct contrast between the upcoming Apec forum in China and the earlier Washington summit. In Washington, according to his description, the US controlled the choreography. China, by contrast, had only participation and discussion rights. At Apec in Shenzhen, the roles will be different because China will be the host.

That host role matters because it affects the mechanics of diplomacy. Agenda-setting, topic selection and preparatory work are not minor details in a high-level international meeting. In Chen’s view, China will have far more autonomy in all three areas as the Apec host than it had during the Washington summit.

Taken together, the three factors identified by experts point to an even more confident Chinese side: the upgraded bilateral framework, the warmer tone around Xi’s three-day visit, and the leverage created by hosting the Apec forum in Shenzhen.

The central point is not merely that the meeting will be held in China. It is that the setting gives Xi more room to shape the diplomatic environment. In a bilateral summit, the host country’s control over choreography can define the tone and structure of the meeting. At the November Apec forum, experts say that advantage will belong to China.

For that reason, the expectation is that Trump will face Xi at the November Apec forum in China under conditions that give Beijing more control, more visibility and a stronger diplomatic platform than it had during the Washington summit.