Goldman Sachs sees wealth fees climbing 30% at Standard Chartered despite Beijing crackdown

Goldman Sachs expects wealth management fees at Standard Chartered and HSBC to climb 30 per cent and 13 per cent respectively by 2026, brushing aside market jitters over Beijing's stricter oversight of cross-border capital movements.

The Wall Street bank also projects 16 to 25 per cent growth for Singapore lenders, signalling confidence that Chinese clients will continue parking assets offshore despite regulatory headwinds.

Diversification trumps tax motives

"We continue to believe offshore wealth allocation by Chinese clients is driven primarily by diversification benefits and access to a broader investment universe, rather than tax considerations alone," Singapore-based analysts Melissa Kuang and Wayne Wang wrote in a Monday report.

Their assessment comes as anxiety has mounted over Beijing's recent moves targeting offshore trusts, overseas insurance income and other cross-border wealth vehicles.

Enforcement, not new curbs

Mainland authorities have intensified tax collection on gains from offshore investment products, including family trusts, in recent months. A 20 per cent levy on overseas insurance policies—which Chinese officials said were already on the books—rattled markets in Hong Kong and raised questions about the viability of wealth management operations.

Goldman's analysts interpreted the measures as clarification and enforcement of existing rules rather than fresh restrictions. That distinction matters for banks that have built sprawling private-banking franchises serving mainland high-net-worth clients seeking portfolio diversification and access to global assets unavailable at home.

The upbeat forecast suggests Goldman believes the structural demand for offshore wealth services will withstand regulatory tightening, even as compliance costs and client caution may dent near-term flows.

Source: South China Morning Post