TMC Split May Boost NDA in Rajya Sabha, Still Short of Two-Thirds

The recent split in the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is expected to benefit the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Parliament. With support from TMC rebel MPs and upcoming Rajya Sabha elections, NDA could move closer to a two-thirds majority in the Upper House. Currently, NDA holds 148 seats in Rajya Sabha and is 16 seats short of the 163 required for a two-thirds majority. Elections on June 18 for two Rajya Sabha seats in Jharkhand and Mizoram, along with support from some independents, could increase NDA’s tally to 151. If NDA-backed candidates win the three Rajya Sabha seats vacated by TMC MPs in West Bengal, the alliance's strength could reach 154, leaving it just 9 seats shy of the target.

In Lok Sabha, NDA currently has 294 MPs. The support of 20 TMC rebel MPs, who merged with NCPI and pledged allegiance to NDA, could raise its strength to 314. However, this is still significantly short of the 360 MPs needed for a two-thirds majority in the 540-member effective Lok Sabha. The alliance remains 63 seats behind the required number.

The two-thirds majority is crucial for passing constitutional amendment bills. In April 2026, the 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill to increase Lok Sabha seats failed by 54 votes, marking the first such instance in 12 years of PM Narendra Modi's government.

In Rajya Sabha, the INDIA bloc currently has the support of 64 MPs. Reports suggest internal differences within the bloc, with DMK reportedly distancing itself over Congress's support for TVK in Tamil Nadu elections and AAP also parting ways. Regional parties like YSRCP, BJD, and MDMK could play a decisive role in close votes.

Key Points
- TMC split may help NDA approach two-thirds majority in Rajya Sabha, currently 16 seats short.
- NDA could reach 154 seats in Rajya Sabha after upcoming elections and TMC MP resignations.
- In Lok Sabha, NDA remains 63 seats behind the two-thirds majority despite TMC rebel support.
- Two-thirds majority is essential for passing constitutional amendment bills.
- Internal differences in the INDIA bloc and regional parties' roles could influence future outcomes.