Western disturbance to bring rain, hail and strong winds across north India

Weather

A western disturbance has begun changing weather conditions across north India, with rain, strong winds and hail expected in several states, while the northeast monsoon is set to become active over the southern peninsula.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast thunderstorms and rain in several parts of the country, with the most significant activity expected across northern and southern regions.

The forecast points to a sharp contrast across the country: western disturbance-linked rain and hail in the north, the beginning of northeast monsoon rain in the south, and thunderstorms with strong winds in parts of central and eastern India.

Western disturbance to bring rain, hail and strong winds

The western disturbance is affecting the weather over north India, including Delhi-NCR and several other states.

The India Meteorological Department has warned of rain accompanied by strong winds in the plains of northwest India.

The weather department has forecast rain in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab, with some places likely to receive heavy to very heavy rain.

Rain is also expected in several areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, western Uttar Pradesh and eastern Rajasthan.

The forecast includes the possibility of hail along with rain, which could increase difficulties in the affected areas.

Hail is likely in some places in Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, western Uttar Pradesh and eastern Rajasthan.

Thunderstorms and lightning are also possible in these areas.

The weather department has cautioned about strong winds in Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and Uttarakhand, where wind speeds may reach 40 to 50 kilometres per hour.

At some places, gusts may reach 60 kilometres per hour.

Parts of western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan may receive winds at speeds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour.

Rain and lightning are also possible in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

The forecast is not limited to one spell over the plains, as the western disturbance is also expected to affect the hill states.

According to the forecast, northern India may continue to see rain for the next three days because of the western disturbance.

The affected belt includes Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh.

The combination of moisture coming from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea with the western disturbance may keep rain activity going over large parts of north India.

Delhi-NCR forecast

Delhi-NCR received scattered rain, and more areas of the region may receive rain as the western disturbance becomes more active.

The weather department has forecast rain in several parts of Delhi, along with strong winds, thunderstorms and the possibility of lightning.

The forecast for Delhi includes very light to light rain at several places, with the possibility of thunderstorms and lightning.

The weather department has said that winds in Delhi may move at 40 to 50 kilometres per hour between the afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 60 kilometres per hour.

Very light to light rain, thunderstorms and lightning are also possible in several parts of Delhi during the night.

Delhi’s maximum temperature is expected to remain between 32 and 34 degrees Celsius, while the minimum temperature may stay between 19 and 21 degrees Celsius.

The forecast represents another change after Delhi experienced bright sunshine in most areas earlier.

The capital had also received rain a day earlier, leaving considerable moisture in the air.

That moisture kept the temperature from rising sharply, according to the weather report.

At the Safdarjung standard observatory, Delhi’s maximum temperature was recorded at 32.5 degrees Celsius, which was 0.7 degrees Celsius below normal.

The minimum temperature there was 21.2 degrees Celsius.

Humidity in Delhi ranged between 56 and 96 per cent.

The forecast of strong winds, rain, thunderstorms and lightning means that weather conditions in the capital may vary through the day and night.

The weather department had earlier forecast partly cloudy skies, with the maximum temperature between 33 and 35 degrees Celsius and the minimum temperature between 20 and 22 degrees Celsius.

It later forecast generally cloudy skies, very light to light rain at several places, thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds.

Air quality remains moderate

Delhi’s air pollution level remained in the safe range in the cited report, although a sharp increase was recorded.

The Central Pollution Control Board recorded Delhi’s average air quality index at 158.

An AQI of 158 falls in the moderate category.

The previous reading was 83, meaning the index rose by 71 points in 24 hours.

The Central Pollution Control Board classifies an AQI between zero and 50 as ‘good’.

An AQI between 51 and 100 is classified as ‘satisfactory’, while a reading between 101 and 200 is placed in the ‘moderate’ category.

Readings between 201 and 300 are classified as ‘poor’, those between 301 and 400 as ‘very poor’, and those between 401 and 500 as ‘severe’.

The AQI in Delhi is expected to remain at the moderate level during the next two days.

The weather change and the air-quality forecast are therefore being reported together for the capital, where rain and strong winds are expected while the AQI remains within the moderate range.

Rain and snowfall in the hills

The weather system is expected to affect the hills as well as the plains.

Heavy rain accompanied by snowfall is possible in the hill states.

Jammu and Kashmir may receive heavy rain at several places along with snowfall.

Several parts of Himachal Pradesh may receive rain, while Uttarakhand may see light rain.

Rain and snowfall in the hill states are linked in the forecast to the active western disturbances and the moisture available over the region.

The forecast also includes rain and lightning in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh.

The weather department has included Uttarakhand among the areas where strong winds and hail are possible.

The broader northern forecast covers Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh.

In the plains, the expected weather includes strong winds, rain and hail at some places.

In the mountains, the forecast is for heavy rain and possible snowfall.

Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh

The western disturbance is expected to have a stronger effect over Punjab, Haryana and the National Capital Region from Thursday.

Wind speeds in these areas may remain between 40 and 50 kilometres per hour.

Punjab, Haryana and several districts of Rajasthan may receive rain with hail.

The forecast says that clouds at an altitude of 10 to 12 kilometres over Punjab may result in heavy rain at some places.

Delhi’s weather may change after Thursday afternoon, according to the forecast cited in the report.

Western Uttar Pradesh may remain cloudy for two days, with rain possible at some places.

The forecast for western Uttar Pradesh also includes winds at 30 to 40 kilometres per hour in some areas.

Eastern Rajasthan may receive rain, hail and strong winds in some areas.

The northern plains forecast therefore combines several weather risks rather than pointing to rain alone.

The weather department has mentioned heavy to very heavy rain in some places, hail in several areas, lightning and wind speeds that may reach 60 kilometres per hour in gusts.

Northeast monsoon set to begin in the south

While the western disturbance is affecting the north, the northeast monsoon is expected to begin over the southern peninsula.

The weather department expects northeast monsoon rain to start in the southern peninsula from 15 October.

Conditions are also becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from the remaining parts of the country.

The southwest monsoon withdrawal line was passing through Dhubri, Kolkata, Angul, Khammam and Honnavar on 14 October.

The southwest monsoon generally brings rain to most parts of the country between June and September.

As it weakens and withdraws, the northeast monsoon begins to become active over southern India.

This transition can bring different kinds of weather activity to different parts of the country at the same time.

The returning monsoon can continue to bring good rain to the country until 20 October, according to the report.

The shift is particularly important for Tamil Nadu and nearby areas after the main phase of southwest monsoon rain has ended.

A large share of the rain received by Tamil Nadu and surrounding areas after the southwest monsoon’s main phase comes from the northeast monsoon.

Its activation can therefore intensify the rain spell across the southern states.

The transition is taking place against a rainfall deficit for the month cited in the forecast.

Rainfall in the country had been 67 per cent below normal so far that month, according to the report.

Heavy rain warning for southern states

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe have been placed under a warning for heavy to very heavy rain.

The same areas may also experience thunderstorms and lightning.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and south interior Karnataka may receive heavy rain at some places.

Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe may see strong winds at speeds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour.

Rain accompanied by gusty winds is also possible in some interior areas of Telangana and Karnataka.

The forecast for southern India includes both heavy rain and convective activity, with thunderstorms and lightning expected in several areas.

The weather department has also forecast rain in parts of the southern peninsula during the period from 14 to 19 October.

Some places may receive heavy rain during this period.

The northeast monsoon’s arrival gives the southern forecast a different pattern from the western disturbance-driven weather in northern India.

In the north, rain is associated with the western disturbance, while in the south, the forecast is linked to the beginning of the northeast monsoon.

Central and eastern India may also see thunderstorms

The weather change is expected to extend beyond the northern and southern regions.

Several states in central and eastern India may receive rain with thunderstorms and strong winds.

The weather department has forecast winds at speeds of 30 to 40 kilometres per hour in parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Vidarbha and western Madhya Pradesh.

Light to moderate rain and lightning are possible in these areas.

Some parts of Konkan, Goa and central Maharashtra may also receive scattered rain accompanied by thunderstorms.

The forecast for Odisha includes the possibility of rain in some districts over the next two to three days.

The central and eastern forecast is therefore for scattered weather activity rather than the same intensity across every area.

The expected combination of rain, lightning and winds is part of the broader change taking place as the southwest monsoon withdraws and other weather systems become active.

Coastal regions may see contrasting conditions

The forecast differs along the coast, where some areas may receive thunderstorms and scattered rain while others may experience heat and humidity.

Coastal Karnataka and the coastal areas of Konkan and Goa may remain hot and humid.

At the same time, parts of Konkan, Goa and central Maharashtra may receive scattered thunderstorms and rain.

This means that coastal areas may experience contrasting conditions within the same broader weather phase.

The forecast does not indicate a uniform rain pattern across all coastal regions.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh remains among the areas where heavy rain is possible.

The southern coastal forecast also includes thunderstorms, lightning and winds at speeds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour in several areas.

The weather department has not issued any warning asking fishermen not to venture into the sea.

Two western disturbances active

Skymet has said that two western disturbances are currently active.

The conditions created by these systems, along with the available moisture, have increased the possibility of rain over north India.

The effect may be more visible from Thursday over Punjab, Haryana and the National Capital Region.

The forecast for the northern plains includes wind speeds of 40 to 50 kilometres per hour.

Jammu and Kashmir may see heavy rain and snowfall at several places, while Himachal Pradesh may receive rain in many areas.

Light rain is possible in Uttarakhand.

The India Meteorological Department has separately said that conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from the remaining parts of the country.

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and the arrival of the northeast monsoon are occurring alongside the western disturbance activity over the north.

That overlap explains why the forecast covers rain, hail, strong winds and possible snowfall in the north, as well as heavy rain and thunderstorms in the south.

The weather department’s forecast also includes thunderstorms and rain over central and eastern states, showing that the change is spread across several regions.

For Delhi and nearby areas, the immediate forecast remains focused on rain, thunderstorms, lightning and winds that may reach 60 kilometres per hour in gusts.

For the southern peninsula, the key development is the expected beginning of northeast monsoon rain from 15 October.

For the hills, heavy rain and snowfall remain possible, while the plains may see hail and strong winds.

The combination of these forecasts marks a broad change in weather conditions across the country as the southwest monsoon continues to withdraw.