PIIE forecasts China’s growth slowing to 4.3% in 2027 as demand weakens

China’s economy to slow as global growth stays solid, US think tank report says

China’s economic growth is expected to slow further next year as export strength fades and weak domestic demand persists, according to a new outlook from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). The forecast comes even as the global economy remains resilient, according to the Washington-based think tank.

Growth forecast lowered

PIIE projects that China’s gross domestic product will grow 4.6 per cent this year and 4.3 per cent in 2027. That would be below the 5 per cent growth recorded in 2025.

The projections were included in the think tank’s semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report, released on Tuesday. The report provides a lower growth outlook for China while describing global economic conditions as solid and resilient.

Domestic pressures and weaker exports

The report said overcapacity and the continuing property slump are weighing on domestic demand. These pressures are expected to remain an important factor in the weaker growth outlook for China.

PIIE also said export strength is expected to fade. The combination of weaker domestic demand and less support from exports is central to the institute’s expectation that China’s growth will slow further.

Source: South China Morning Post