Morgan Stanley Economist Says China’s ‘Top Half of K’ Can Sustain Growth

Robin Xing on how China’s ‘two-speed’ economy can solve contrasting problems

Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, is using his second Open Questions interview to examine China’s K-shaped economic divergence and the contrasting pressures shaping its growth.

The discussion centres on how a “new industrial revolution” and “demand-centric reflation” could help sustain China’s growth.

Why the “top half of the K” matters

Xing remains convinced that the “top half of the K” can offset challenges including deflation and weak consumption.

His assessment presents China’s economy as a split picture, with divergence at the centre of the debate rather than a single, uniform growth story.

The interview also examines how support for consumers could sustain and accelerate China’s advance in technology.

That connects the demand problem with the country’s industrial and technological momentum, two issues the discussion treats as closely linked.

Xing also discusses Beijing’s real priorities and the “fallacy of composition”.

Questions around trade and investment

The interview places those domestic economic questions alongside the wider uncertainty around China’s external economic ties.

It asks whether President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump’s meetings will deliver stability in trade, investment and broader economic relations.

Xi and Trump have met twice and are expected to meet two more times this year, according to the source.

The interview further asks whether businesses can now proceed with their trade and investment plans with greater clarity and confidence.

It also raises whether the two-month extension of the tariff truce should be viewed as a disappointment.

Xing’s background

Xing is a Peking University graduate and holds a PhD in economics from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

He previously worked at Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corp.

The interview first appeared in SCMP Plus and is part of the Open Questions series.

Source: South China Morning Post