India's Southwest Monsoon Ends 12.6% Below Normal, Driest Since 2015

Southwest Monsoon Ends With 12% Deficit

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon closed with 759.4 mm of rainfall, 12.6% below the normal of 868.6 mm, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.

At 87% of the Long Period Average, the season was the driest monsoon recorded since 2015, when rainfall was slightly lower at 758.2 mm.

The sharpest concern came from the east and northeast region, where 1,017.1 mm of rainfall made this the driest monsoon since 1901, the year from which the IMD has maintained systematic records.

Forecasts Had Pointed To A Weak Monsoon

The subdued rainfall was broadly in line with forecasts from global weather agencies, including the IMD, which had anticipated one of the strongest El Ninos in recent history.

The IMD had been projecting subdued monsoon rainfall since April, and the overall seasonal outcome corresponded with what it had forecast.

On April 13, the IMD estimated that June-September rainfall would be 92% of the Long Period Average, with an error window of 5%.

In its May 29 update, the agency lowered the estimate to 90%, with a 4% error window.

The final seasonal rainfall estimate of 87% of the Long Period Average remained within that forecast range.

Monthly Forecasts Saw Wider Gaps

While the all-India seasonal estimate held up, the IMD’s regional and monthly forecasts were much farther off the mark.

June was the biggest early gap, receiving only 65% of normal rainfall against a forecast of 92%.

July moved in the other direction, as rainfall had been expected to be below 94% but ended with 1% more than normal.

That July outcome was helped by rainfall in central India, which received 33% more rain than normal.

August rainfall came in at 84% of the Long Period Average, aligning with the forecast category of “below 94%”.

September finished at 92.4%, slightly above the forecast of “below 91%”.

IMD director general M. Mohapatra told journalists on Wednesday that the agency’s predictions matched conditions in “many regions, except some parts of northwest and adjoining central India”.

East And Northeast Saw The Largest Deficit

The largest departures from normal rainfall were recorded in east and northeast India, where rainfall was 25.6% below normal.

Mr. Mohapatra said there was a “marked trend” of diminishing rainfall in the east and northeast region “in recent years”.

The southern peninsula also saw a large shortfall, with rainfall 24.3% below normal.

At 542 mm, the southern peninsula recorded its fourth lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901.

Northwest India ended the season 5.9% below normal, according to an IMD statement.

Central India finished 2.6% below normal, according to the same IMD statement.

Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, and the Assam & Meghalaya subdivisions were rain-deficient in every month from June to September.

Seventeen Subdivisions Were Deficient

Across the country, 17 of 36 subdivisions recorded deficient rainfall during the monsoon season.

These deficient subdivisions covered 42% of the country’s land area.

Another 18 subdivisions recorded normal rainfall, while one subdivision recorded excess rain.

Of the 741 districts assessed, 282 were deficient in rainfall.

The IMD assessment also found that 34 districts were “large deficient”.

Withdrawal Under Way, Northeast Monsoon To Follow

Mr. Mohapatra said the southwest monsoon is in the process of withdrawal this year.

He said it is likely to completely exit within the first weeks of October.

The country will then see the advent of the northeast monsoon.

The transition comes with El Nino still gaining strength.

For October, rainfall for the country is likely to be below 85% of the Long Period Average of about 75.4 mm.

Most regions are expected to receive below-normal rain in October.

The exceptions are parts of northwest India, southern peninsular India, and isolated pockets of the east, which may see normal to above-normal rain.

“Parts of Punjab, Haryana and northern states may see good rainfall because, in El Nino years, western disturbances are likely to increase,” Mr. Mohapatra said.

He added that “some good rain” had been seen in these regions in the last week.

He said this meant soil moisture was high, which would help the forthcoming winter crop.

Hotter Conditions Expected Across Most Of India

Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of the country.

The exceptions include parts of the northeast, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.

Pockets of central and northwest India are also exceptions, with normal maximum temperatures expected there.

The IMD’s end-of-season assessment therefore places the 2026 southwest monsoon among the weakest recent monsoon seasons nationally, while identifying the east and northeast as the region with the most severe long-term comparison since systematic records began.

Published - September 30, 2026 10:23 pm IST.

Source: The Hindu