Gabigol’s Santos revival puts him among Brazil’s top three in 2026

santos vs flamengo

Gabriel Barbosa’s return to the Santos starting XI has been accompanied by a statistical revival that places him among the most productive players in Brazilian football in 2026.

The forward has scored 23 goals and provided 10 assists in 43 appearances for Santos, giving him 33 direct goal contributions. That figure puts him among the three leading players in Brazil for the indicator, alongside Flaco López of Palmeiras and Pedro of Flamengo.

The numbers also suggest that Gabigol’s recovery is about more than simply receiving more minutes on the pitch. His productivity per minute has moved close to the level of his best years, while his role at Santos has restored him as a central attacking reference.

A different phase after Flamengo

For two seasons, a narrative had taken hold around Gabriel Barbosa that appeared definitive: Gabigol was finished. His goal numbers declined, his prominence faded and the forward moved from being a Flamengo idol to appearing less frequently among the starters.

His spell at Cruzeiro in 2025 did not restore his former status. However, the figures from 2026 tell a different story after his return to Santos.

The question raised by the analysis is whether Gabigol had genuinely stopped being a high-level player or whether he was being judged against the extraordinary standard he had created himself. Few players have built a career in Brazilian football this century as decisive as Gabriel Barbosa’s.

Gabigol is described as the highest-scoring Brazilian in Libertadores history, a member of the group of the five leading scorers in the Campeonato Brasileiro and a protagonist in historic Flamengo achievements. Those accomplishments made his decline appear even more pronounced because the comparison was not with an ordinary striker, but with one who had dominated Brazilian football between 2019 and 2021.

The 2023 and 2024 seasons were among the weakest of his career for direct goal contributions, excluding his first year as a professional. Even during 2024, however, he played a decisive role in Flamengo’s Copa do Brasil triumph by scoring twice in the first match of the final against Atlético-MG.

The concern was the gap between that contribution and the version of Gabigol who had controlled matches and produced consistently during his strongest Flamengo period.

Playing time changed, but not everything

The first visible change in Gabigol’s recent trajectory came through his time on the field. In 2024, his final season with Flamengo, he averaged fewer than 40 minutes per match. That was his lowest figure since 2017, when he had received limited opportunities in Europe.

At Cruzeiro in 2025, his average rose to approximately 47 minutes per match, but it remained well below the levels of his best seasons. At Santos in 2026, he began playing more than 70 minutes per match, a level he had not reached since 2023.

That greater involvement brought other changes with it. Gabigol returned to the starting line-up, became an attacking reference and assumed a central role in the team.

The analysis cautions against explaining the revival only through the increase in his playing time. In 2023, when he was already playing approximately 70 minutes per match, his production had fallen to 0.447 goals and 0.089 assists per 90 minutes.

In other words, he was producing less even when he had enough time on the pitch. That comparison is why production per 90 minutes is important: it allows players with different amounts of playing time to be assessed on a common basis.

Goal production returns to an elite level

In 2026, Gabriel has registered 0.65 goals per 90 minutes, above his historical average of approximately 0.56. It is his best figure since 2021 and the fourth-highest mark of his career.

Only his 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons produced higher figures in that measure. Those were the seasons identified as his most dominant period with Flamengo.

The recovery becomes even clearer when assists are included. Gabigol has reached 0.941 direct goal contributions per 90 minutes in 2026. Only the three-year period from 2019 to 2021 produced better results.

Between 2022 and 2024, his direct goal contributions per 90 minutes fluctuated between 0.53 and 0.62. At Cruzeiro, even without establishing himself as the main protagonist, Gabriel recorded approximately 0.67 goal contributions per 90 minutes.

That was a significant average, but it did not translate into a leading role during decisive moments. The difference in 2026 is the combination of high productivity and a constant presence on the field.

His assist numbers reinforce that distinction. Gabigol has produced 0.285 assists per 90 minutes in 2026, the second-best figure of his career. Only 2020 was better, when he reached 0.368 assists per 90 minutes.

The 2026 figure is approximately twice his historical average. In the four previous seasons, he had not gone beyond 0.16 assists per 90 minutes.

The data therefore points to an attacker who is not merely finishing chances more effectively. It also shows a player again involved in the construction of goals.

Santos has restored his central role

One possible explanation for the improvement lies in Gabigol’s function on the pitch. With Pedro becoming established at Flamengo, Gabriel had to adapt his positioning and responsibilities.

The pair had been fundamental to Flamengo’s 2022 Libertadores campaign, but the presence of another centre-forward changed Gabigol’s offensive duties. At Cruzeiro, he also shared the attack with Kaio Jorge.

At Santos, he has returned to being the principal central reference, the role he occupied during his peak at Flamengo. The change may help explain why his assist numbers have also improved.

Gabigol moves into attacking combinations and finds teammates in positions to finish. That description presents his role as broader than that of a striker waiting only for the final touch.

His return to a central position has coincided with a rise in both scoring and chance creation. The source material does not present the tactical change as the only explanation, but identifies it as a possible reason for the improvement in his assists.

Efficiency matters more than shot volume

The Campeonato Brasileiro figures add another layer to the picture. Gabigol is among the three players with the largest positive difference between goals scored and expected goals, an indicator known as Goals minus xG.

Expected goals, or xG, estimates the probability that a shot will become a goal by considering features of the opportunity, including distance and angle. Comparing goals scored with the expected total helps identify players who are converting chances above or below the statistical expectation.

Gabigol has a positive balance of 3.37 goals above expectation. He is behind only Danilo of Botafogo, at +6.12, and Luciano Juba of Bahia, at +4.06. He is ahead of Flaco López of Palmeiras, who has a positive balance of +2.66.

Gabigol is also scoring 0.80 goals per 90 minutes in the Brasileirão. That places him in the 96th percentile among the forwards analysed.

The percentile means that his scoring average is higher than that of approximately 96% of the players in the comparison group. His ranking is different when the measure is shots on target per 90 minutes.

In that category, he is in the 53rd percentile, with an average of 0.92 shots on target per 90 minutes. The figures indicate that he does not stand out because of the number of accurate attempts he produces.

His distinction is the ability to turn opportunities into goals. That is a significant detail in assessing his 2026 performance because it separates the volume of his shooting from the effectiveness of his finishing.

The finishing numbers behind the comeback

The shot map helps illustrate that efficiency. A large share of Gabigol’s goals has come in the lower part of the goal, close to the posts, areas that require goalkeepers to move further.

Another figure stands out in the analysis: 13 of his 15 shots on target ended in goals. That represents an approximate conversion rate of 87% of shots on target.

The source distinguishes that figure from conversion across all attempts, which also includes shots that went wide and those that were blocked. That distinction matters because an 87% rate in this calculation does not mean that 87% of every shot he attempted became a goal.

The analysis also warns that such high indicators can change as the number of opportunities increases. Even with that qualification, the available figures show a forward taking his chances with exceptional efficiency.

That efficiency helps explain why his scoring output is so strong despite his relatively ordinary ranking for shots on target per 90 minutes. His numbers point to quality and conversion rather than simply a high volume of attempts.

Was Gabigol really finished?

The broader issue is how Gabigol’s recent seasons were interpreted. His decline was real when measured against the standards of his best Flamengo years, but the analysis asks whether that decline was enough to conclude that he could not return.

The source frames the question directly: was Gabriel Barbosa playing poorly enough to be declared incapable of returning, or was he merely performing below the level expected after the magical seasons he had with Flamengo?

That distinction is central to the Santos-versus-Flamengo context surrounding his current phase. Flamengo remains the reference point because it was where Gabigol established the numbers, status and expectations that shaped judgments about his later performances.

Santos, meanwhile, has given him a role in which he is again a regular starter, a central attacking reference and a consistent presence on the pitch. The result is a statistical profile that resembles the strongest stages of his career more closely than the preceding seasons did.

In 2026, Gabigol’s 23 goals, 10 assists and 33 direct goal contributions for Santos have placed him among Brazil’s leading players by that measure. His 0.65 goals per 90 minutes, 0.941 direct goal contributions per 90 minutes and 0.285 assists per 90 minutes show that the improvement extends across scoring and creation.

The source’s conclusion is that Gabriel Barbosa has regained the status of an important player for his team by delivering goals and performances. It goes further, describing him as back at the first level of centre-forwards in Brazilian football, while leaving open the question of whether he ever truly left it.