China’s Comac forecast to secure 5% of global passenger fleet by 2045

C919 set to lead way as Chinese aircraft forecast to secure 5% of world market in 20 years

Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) is forecast to hold 5 per cent of the world’s fleet allocation by 2045, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

The projection would put China’s chief civilian aircraft builder behind Airbus and Boeing, which are expected to retain their dominant positions in the global passenger fleet.

Airbus and Boeing to retain lead

Cirium forecast that Airbus would account for 47 per cent of the passenger fleet allocation, while Boeing would hold 39 per cent.

The figures place both manufacturers ahead of state-owned Comac, although the Chinese company is expected to expand its share significantly from its current position.

Comac has a roughly 1 per cent share of today’s world fleet allocation, independent aviation analyst Li Hanming said.

The forecast is supported by expectations of strong global demand for narrowbody jets and the strength of Comac’s domestic order book, according to the source.

Gradual shift towards emerging manufacturers

Cirium published the projection in a summary of its annual aircraft fleet outlook on Tuesday.

The firm said the forecast allocations would “illustrate the persistence of the Airbus and Boeing concentration alongside the gradual shift” towards emerging manufacturers.

Other manufacturers are expected to retain smaller portions of the market.

Embraer is forecast to take 3 per cent of the passenger fleet allocation, while ATR is expected to account for 2 per cent.

The outlook therefore points to continued Airbus and Boeing dominance, alongside a gradual increase in the presence of emerging manufacturers such as Comac.

Source: South China Morning Post