GIFT Nifty signals positive start for Indian markets amid global risks

Indian benchmark indices were set for a firm opening after GIFT Nifty traded around 22,645 in early trade, up 44.5 points and indicating a positive start for domestic equities.

The signal followed a strong session in which the Sensex gained 879 points, or 1.23 per cent, to close at 72,472, while the Nifty rose 289 points, or 1.30 per cent, to finish at 22,520.

The early indication remained supportive, but analysts said the market could stay cautious because global risks remained elevated.

GIFT Nifty points to a positive start

GIFT Nifty’s move suggested that the optimism from the previous session had carried into the next trading day, despite fresh concerns linked to oil, the Gulf region and currency markets.

The market’s opening cue was described as flat-to-firm in one assessment, while another pointed to a resilient, marginally flat-positive opening.

The bias was therefore cautiously optimistic rather than decisively bullish, with the broader undertone still considered fragile.

The Nifty was trading below 22,580, identified as the previous session’s high, and a move above that level could open the way towards 22,800 and 22,900.

Immediate support was placed at 22,300, while a break below that level could expose 22,150.

These levels gave traders a defined range to watch as the domestic market weighed the strength of the previous rally against the impact of global developments.

Moneycontrol also reported that GIFT Nifty was trading higher at around 22,645 in early trade, with the move pointing to a firm opening for Indian benchmark indices.

The indication came after Indian equities ended sharply higher in the previous session, making the opening signal important for assessing whether buying interest could continue beyond the rebound.

The previous session’s broad-based rally

The Sensex closed at 72,472 after adding 879 points, or 1.23 per cent.

The Nifty 50 ended at 22,520, gaining 289 points, or 1.30 per cent from the previous session.

The Nifty’s advance came after it had touched an intraday 52-week low in the previous session, according to Hemang Gor, Senior Research Analyst, Derivatives and Technical Research, Axis Direct.

The rally was broad-based, with information technology stocks leading sectoral gains.

The Nifty IT index rose about 3 per cent in one market assessment, while Moneycontrol reported a 3.02 per cent rise in the IT sector.

FMCG stocks gained 2.2 per cent, while PSU banks advanced 1.63 per cent.

Midcaps rose 1.56 per cent and smallcaps gained 0.54 per cent.

The sectoral and market-cap performance showed that the buying was not limited to one part of the market.

The Nifty 500 also closed higher, rising 1.16 per cent to 21,866.

India VIX eased to 14.37 as domestic institutional investors absorbed selling by foreign institutional investors.

That combination provided a calmer backdrop for the opening indication, although the weekend’s escalation in Gulf-related risks was expected to test the market’s stability.

Wall Street ended higher

The positive domestic opening cue came after Wall Street finished higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 423.31 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 51,654.95.

The S&P 500 gained 46.15 points, or 0.59 per cent, to close at 7,811.51.

The Nasdaq Composite advanced 172.83 points, or 0.64 per cent, to 27,366.17.

Another market assessment put the S&P 500’s gain at 0.6 per cent, the Dow’s rise at 0.8 per cent and the Nasdaq’s increase at 0.6 per cent.

Wall Street’s advance came as investors turned their attention to the following week, when third-quarter earnings season was expected to begin and inflation data was due.

The inflation data was being watched for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.

The gains in US equities offered support to the risk mood, but they did not remove the concerns surrounding oil prices, bond yields, the dollar and geopolitical developments.

The 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 5.23 per cent and the two-year Treasury yield at 4.78 per cent in early trade.

Another market update placed the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.24 per cent, despite the record week for Wall Street.

The different reported levels reflected the market’s continued focus on elevated US borrowing costs as a factor for global asset prices.

The dollar index held near 17-month highs at 102, while the dollar traded at 158.15 against the yen.

The threat of Japanese intervention was reported to be deterring speculators in the yen.

Asian markets remained mixed

The opening signal from GIFT Nifty was also being read against a mixed Asian backdrop.

Asian share markets began cautiously as the earnings season posed a challenge to high technology valuations.

Oil prices were choppy after strikes on shipping and airports in the Gulf.

In another assessment, Japan was shut for Sports Day, while the Hang Seng rose 0.8 per cent, Shanghai was flat and the Kospi fell 2.0 per cent.

A separate market update said the Hang Seng gained 0.77 per cent, while South Korea’s market declined 1.91 per cent.

The Sensex was reported to have risen 1.23 per cent in the comparison of global markets.

Asian currencies, meanwhile, traded higher against the US dollar.

The South Korean won led the gains, rising 0.355 per cent from its previous close.

The Philippine peso advanced 0.204 per cent and the Chinese renminbi gained 0.158 per cent.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.12 per cent, while the Indonesian rupiah and Thai baht edged up 0.089 per cent and 0.087 per cent, respectively.

The Singapore dollar rose 0.078 per cent, while the Malaysian ringgit and Taiwan dollar posted gains of 0.059 per cent and 0.041 per cent.

The mixed regional performance meant that GIFT Nifty offered a positive domestic cue even as Asian trading did not point to a uniform improvement in risk appetite.

Oil remains central to the market outlook

Crude oil continued to be one of the main variables for Indian equities.

Brent crude traded near $103.5 a barrel, down about 1.2 per cent, but remained elevated.

Moneycontrol reported that Brent futures fell $1.57 to $102.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $89.96 a barrel, down $1.85, or 2.01 per cent.

The decline followed US President Donald Trump’s statement that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities after a US diesel-supply deal with Moscow.

The report said oil prices slipped on expectations of additional Russian supplies.

Another assessment said Brent had eased after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms.

Oil’s retreat provided some relief on the inflation front, but supply risks remained elevated.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a storm in the Gulf of Mexico that had shut over 60 per cent of output continued to keep supply concerns in focus.

A separate market thesis said Brent had jumped overnight to $105.48 after a Houthi strike on Riyadh airport.

That movement illustrated why the market was treating lower oil prices as a relief rather than as confirmation that energy risks had disappeared.

The market was also watching whether the weekend’s escalation would produce only a one-session oil spike or a more sustained move.

A formal US strike alongside Saudi forces was assessed as a development that could push Brent well past $105.

A stand-down, by contrast, would allow the recent measures taken to defend the rupee to hold through the week, according to the same market view.

RBI measures and the rupee

The rupee was another important part of the opening setup.

The rupee was last near ₹96.70 per dollar and was indicated to open about 1 per cent stronger after measures by the Reserve Bank of India to ease dollar demand.

The market thesis said Friday’s emergency RBI dollar curbs were intended to defend the rupee.

That intervention framed the domestic market as one that could favour dollar earners and domestic consumption rather than import-exposed cyclicals.

The same view said the thesis would break if the RBI’s new dollar curbs failed to hold the rupee through the session.

The currency therefore mattered not only for foreign-exchange markets but also for the relative performance of companies with overseas revenue and businesses exposed to imported energy costs.

A softer rupee was seen as supportive for dollar-earning engineering and media-technology exporters.

At the same time, import-heavy names remained vulnerable to elevated crude prices and the possibility of further pressure on the currency.

The market’s response would depend on whether the rupee’s indicated strength could withstand the pressure from oil and the dollar.

FII selling and DII support

Foreign institutional investor selling remained a source of caution despite the strong domestic close.

Foreign institutional investors extended their selling streak for the 11th consecutive session on October 9, offloading equities worth Rs 3568 crore.

Domestic institutional investors continued to provide buying support, purchasing equities worth around Rs 4743 crore during the session.

The earlier market assessment also said DII buying was absorbing FII selling.

That balance helped the market advance even as overseas investors continued to reduce exposure.

It also formed part of the reason the domestic market could show resilience in the face of Gulf-related uncertainty.

However, the persistence of foreign selling meant that the positive GIFT Nifty signal did not remove questions about the durability of the rally.

The market was therefore entering the session with two opposing forces: domestic institutional buying and a strong prior close on one side, and foreign outflows, oil risks and high US yields on the other.

Stocks and sectors in focus

The market positioning described in the source material favoured companies that could benefit from a softer rupee without carrying the full burden of higher oil costs.

The focus included dollar-earning engineering and media-technology exporters, domestic consumption companies and financial-services names considered insulated from the Gulf supply scare.

Allied Blenders and Distillers was listed as a high-conviction pick because its spirits demand was described as domestic and rupee-insensitive.

Prime Focus was identified for its dollar-billed visual-effects and post-production work, which could gain as the rupee remained under pressure despite the RBI’s defence.

Engineers India was linked to engineering, procurement and construction consultancy work in refining and petrochemicals.

The source said elevated crude prices could provide a tailwind to the energy-security capital-expenditure theme.

Cyient was identified for export engineering research and development work for global aerospace and automobile clients.

Its dollar revenue was seen as supportive while the rupee remained soft.

Max Financial Services was included because its insurance float continued to gather domestic savings as DII buying absorbed FII selling during the Gulf-risk sell-off.

The positioning also included a smaller allocation to energy-infrastructure EPC to capture the energy-security capital-expenditure theme while crude prices remained elevated.

The sector choices reflected the market’s attempt to balance external risks with areas supported by domestic demand, foreign-currency revenue or energy-related spending.

Gold, oil and broader risk appetite

Gold edged higher as traders assessed Trump’s claim of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine.

The metal also remained supported by concerns that a wider conflict in the Middle East could add to inflation pressures.

Gold traded near $4,200 an ounce after rising 1.3 per cent during the previous week.

Another market update said gold climbed above $4,200 an ounce for a third session, supported by a softer dollar and easing oil prices.

Silver recovered above $61 an ounce after reaching a two-month low.

A separate assessment said gold added 0.43 per cent while oil fell 1.70 per cent, easing inflation concerns.

The combination of stronger equities, lower volatility and reduced energy pressure was described as supportive for continued capital participation across Bitcoin, Ethereum and broader crypto markets.

At the same time, the market’s risk appetite remained selective because high yields, energy costs and dollar strength continued to weigh on broader participation.

This mix of relief and caution was also visible in the equity setup, where GIFT Nifty indicated a positive opening even as analysts continued to flag global risks.

Crypto markets reflect the same uncertainty

The broader market backdrop was also visible in cryptocurrency trading.

Bitcoin was trading around $83,770 as the market attempted to stabilise after recent selling.

ETF flows remained volatile, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing heavy outflows on October 7 and 8.

Those outflows were described as a sign of cautious institutional sentiment.

Elevated oil prices, a stronger dollar and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move were also weighing on risk appetite in crypto markets.

Bitcoin was reported near $83.8K on October 12, having recovered from the previous week’s dip towards $80K but remaining below the $87K resistance area.

The recovery took place against a backdrop of a US dollar near an 18-month high, elevated Treasury yields and renewed Middle East tensions.

Attention was turning to Wednesday’s US inflation data and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Near-term technical levels placed support around $82K-$83K and resistance around $85K-$85.5K, followed by $86.5K-$87K.

Bitcoin’s support area was also described as the $82,000-$83,000 zone, with advice against chasing short-term rallies.

Staggered buying, smaller position sizes and close attention to ETF flows and US inflation data were listed as ways to manage volatility.

Bitcoin and Ethereum levels

Bitcoin later traded near $83,412 in a constructive but consolidating daily structure, with its relative strength index at 53, indicating balanced momentum.

Immediate support was placed around $83,200-$83,300, while $83,600-$84,100 formed resistance.

Holding support could preserve buyer control, while a loss of that level could expose $82,400-$82,700.

Futures traders were advised to monitor volume, open interest and funding for directional confirmation.

Another analysis said Bitcoin had recovered from around $80,300 and moved above its key two-hour exponential moving averages.

The main resistance in that assessment was $84,000-$85,000, with a sustained break potentially opening $86,000-$87,000 and then $90,000.

Support was placed at $83,200-$83,500 and $82,000-$82,500.

A break lower could bring $80,000-$81,000 back into focus.

Ethereum was trading near $2,533 in a range-bound daily structure.

Immediate support for Ethereum was placed at $2,505, followed by $2,480.

Resistance stood near $2,575 and the psychological $2,600 level.

A break above $2,565-$2,600 could target $2,700-$2,775, while a move below $2,515-$2,525 could shift risk towards $2,420-$2,450.

Ethereum remained weaker because it was above its 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages but below its 100-period and 200-period averages.

ETF flows remain mixed

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $21 million in inflows after nearly $730 million in combined outflows over the previous two sessions.

Another update put daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs at $21.1 million.

Ethereum ETFs posted nine consecutive sessions of outflows.

The same withdrawal streak was put at $56.1 million in net outflows in another market update.

Bitcoin’s modest inflow supported stability but did not trigger a sharp gain.

ETF flows may not immediately lift prices because profit-taking, exchange supply, derivatives positioning, macro uncertainty and resistance near key levels can absorb fresh institutional demand.

The rebound in crypto markets followed more than $2.4 billion in liquidations.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $681 million in outflows, ending a three-week inflow streak.

At the same time, whales were reported to have accumulated around 15,000 BTC in 72 hours, while corporate holdings increased by 193,000 BTC during the year.

Leverage was also described as significantly lower than before the previous year’s October 10 crash, when $19 billion was liquidated.

That lower leverage was seen as a factor that could reduce systemic risk, although the recovery was still described as tentative.

Inflation and Federal Reserve policy

Macro conditions remained central to the outlook for both equities and cryptocurrencies.

A strong dollar, elevated Treasury yields and higher oil prices continued to weigh on risk assets.

Wednesday’s US consumer price index data was identified as the next major catalyst.

Headline inflation was expected near 3.7 per cent in one assessment.

A hotter inflation reading could pressure crypto markets, while softer inflation could support the rebound.

The probability of an October Federal Reserve hike had fallen to 19 per cent, offering some relief for liquidity and crypto participation.

However, inflation expectations remained elevated as oil held above $100, US Treasury yields stayed near 24-year highs and foreign capital continued to leave Indian equities.

These conditions kept borrowing expensive and could restrict institutional flows into Bitcoin and altcoins.

The combination of lower near-term tightening expectations and continued pressure from yields, energy costs and the dollar meant that broader market participation remained selective.

For Bitcoin, $84,000-$85,000 was identified as the key confirmation zone.

For Ethereum, $2,600 was the first major hurdle, while $2,700 was needed for a stronger shift in structure.

What the opening signal does and does not show

GIFT Nifty’s move around 22,645 provided a positive indication for the domestic open, but it did not settle the larger questions facing the market.

The previous session’s rally, the rise in IT and FMCG stocks, and continued DII support created a constructive domestic setup.

Wall Street’s gains and the easing in crude prices added to that support.

However, the dollar remained strong, Treasury yields were elevated, foreign investors continued selling Indian equities and oil prices were still high.

The situation in the Gulf, including the possibility of further action involving the US and Saudi Arabia, remained a specific risk for crude and the rupee.

The immediate domestic levels were therefore 22,580 on the upside, followed by 22,800 and 22,900, and 22,300 and 22,150 on the downside.

A move above 22,580 would strengthen the positive signal, while a break below 22,300 would expose the lower support level.

The central question for the session was whether Friday’s optimism could withstand the first wave of fresh Gulf risk and the continuing pressure from international markets.

For now, GIFT Nifty pointed to a firm start, while the wider market setup remained cautiously optimistic and vulnerable to developments in oil, currencies, foreign flows and US policy expectations.